EuroPolity Issue One
Brussels' Top Jobs Shakeup, UK Labour Landslide, and French Election Preview and more.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
UVL, the comeback kid (or really, who else was there?)
TOP JOBS SETTLED (FOR NOW): EU leaders locked in their choices for the bloc's top posts in a late-night session that defied expectations by finishing before midnight. Here's the scorecard:
— Ursula von der Leyen gets the nod for a second term as Commission president
— Former Portuguese PM António Costa tapped as next European Council president
— Estonian PM Kaja Kallas picked as a candidate for EU foreign policy chief
— Maltese conservative Roberto Metsola expected to keep his Parliament presidency
NOT SO FAST: While leaders have spoken, von der Leyen and Kallas must clear the European Parliament hurdle. Sources say UvdL needs about 400 votes in a secret ballot — doable but potentially tight.
ORBÁN WATCH: The Hungarian PM predictably opposed everything but couldn't derail the QMV vote. Orbán remains a fly in the ointment for Ukraine's EU aspirations. He's blocking European Peace Facility assistance and making noise about membership talks. Keep an eye on the July EUCO. Orbán's threatening to veto any long-term budget increase.
ZELENSKYY'S SURPRISE APPEARANCE: The Ukrainian president dropped by to sign an EU-Ukraine security agreement and push for more military aid. Air defence topped his wish list.
WHAT'S NEXT: Assuming she clears the EP vote, von der Leyen's to-do list is already taking shape:
Fast-track Ukraine's EU membership (despite Hungarian roadblocks)
Resurrect the Green Deal (expect pushback from the right)
Beef up the EU's defence capabilities (is a new commission portfolio incoming?)
SPOTTED: A bleary-eyed Charles Michel ordering a triple espresso at Place Lux at 1 AM, muttering something about "my last all-nighter in this job."
Spotlight on the Baltic Iron Lady Kaja Kallas
POLITICAL OUTLOOK: Kaja Kallas, the current Prime Minister of Estonia, has emerged as a prominent figure in European politics. She will take up the EU's top diplomatic post of High Representative, an appointment which has showcased her rising influence beyond Estonia's borders. Kallas has made a name for herself as one of the most outspoken critics of the Kremlin and Russian aggression against Ukraine. As Prime Minister, Kallas has focused on boosting Estonia's defence capabilities and providing significant military aid to Ukraine. Under her leadership, Estonia has given Ukraine 1.4% of its GDP in military support, making it one of the top supporters relative to population size. This commitment to supporting Ukraine and standing up to Russian aggression has become a defining feature of her tenure.
BACKGROUND: Kallas comes from a political family - her father, Siim Kallas, was Estonia's member of the EU Commission from 2004-2014. This background has likely influenced her strong European outlook and diplomatic skills. She is seen as pragmatic and diplomatically adept, though her ability to handle crises beyond Eastern Europe remains to be tested. However, Kallas's tenure has not been without controversy. She faced a significant scandal in 2022 when it was revealed her husband had a stake in a company that continued operations in Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, she has managed to maintain her position and continue her strong stance against Russian aggression.
BOTTOMLINE: As Prime Minister, Kallas has positioned Estonia as a staunch supporter of Ukraine and a vocal critic of Russian aggression while also working to strengthen Estonia's own defence and position within NATO and the EU. Her outspoken stance against Russia has made her a target of the Kremlin and a rising figure in European politics, particularly regarding security and relations with Russia. As she potentially moves towards a larger role on the European stage, her experience in dealing with Russia and her commitment to European unity and defence will likely be critical factors in her political future.
Now Labour has won, what next?
BACKGROUND: The UK has a new government, with Labour's Keir Starmer taking over as Prime Minister after his party's victory in yesterday's general election (4 July). Here's what to expect in the crucial first days:
DAY ONE DASH: Starmer will head to Buckingham Palace this morning to be formally appointed PM by King Charles. He'll then make his first speech outside 10 Downing Street before diving into a flurry of activity:
— Cabinet appointments: Expect most of Labour's shadow cabinet to move into government roles, with key posts like Chancellor and Foreign Secretary announced first.
— Civil service briefings: Starmer and top ministers will be deluged with information from officials on pressing issues and national security.
— Stakeholder calls: Expect early outreach to devolved leaders, key allies and EU figures.
WHAT'S ON THE AGENDA: Labour inherits a bulging in-tray of challenges:
— Economic headwinds: Slowing growth and cost-of-living pressures.
— Public services: Ongoing NHS pressures and strikes across sectors.
— Foreign policy: Supporting Ukraine and managing post-Brexit EU relations.
POLICY PRIORITIES: Starmer pledged a "mission-driven" government focused on economic growth, NHS reform, clean energy transition, crime reduction and opportunities for young people. But wait to expect significant announcements.
PREDICTIONS: The start will be cautious and focused on projecting stability and competence. Major initiatives likely won't emerge until after the summer recess.
BRUSSELS ANGLE: EU officials will be watching closely for signs of a reset in UK-EU relations under Labour. Early calls with Ursula von der Leyen and key EU leaders expected.
DATES FOR YOUR DIARY:
— Today: Cabinet appointments.
— Next week: NATO summit in Washington.
— September: Potential emergency budget.
— October/November: King's Speech outlining legislative agenda.
FLASHBACK: When former Prime Minister Gordon Brown arrived at Downing Street as Prime Minister, he said in his speech that he would “do his utmost” for Britain. Let's hope Starmer has the same sense of duty.
FRENCH ELECTION FEVER: The second round of France's parliamentary elections is just days away, and the political landscape is shifting faster than you can say "cohabitation."
— REPUBLICAN FRONT 2.0: More than 200 centrist and left-wing candidates have withdrawn from Sunday's runoff. Their mission? Block the far-right National Rally (RN) from gaining ground. It's like a political game of chess, but with higher stakes.
— MARINE'S GAMBIT: RN leader Marine Le Pen is playing it cool, saying her party won't govern without an absolute majority. Is this the end of the "cordon sanitaire"?
— MACRON'S MISCALCULATION? The president's decision to call snap elections is looking increasingly like a political own goal.
BRUSSELS BITES ITS NAILS: A strong RN showing could send shockwaves through the EU. Here's what's at stake:
FREXIT LITE?: RN wants to renegotiate EU rules and institute a "national preference" for French businesses. Think of it as a gentle prod towards the exit door.
BUDGET BLUES: The party threatens to withhold part of France's EU budget contribution. One Commission official deadpanned, "I guess we'll have to cancel the coffee machine upgrade."
NATO NERVES: While RN has toned down its Russia-friendly rhetoric, its past scepticism of NATO has allies on edge.
IMMIGRATION IMPASSE: RN's hardline stance could complicate EU efforts to forge a standard migration policy.
WHAT'S NEXT: All eyes on Sunday's vote. Expect late nights in the Berlaymont as officials game out scenarios ranging from "business as usual" to "mon dieu!"
Key Developments
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CANADA JOINS HORIZON EUROPE: On Wednesday (3 July), Iliana Ivanova, Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth, and Francois-Philippe Champagne, Canadian Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, will sign the agreement allowing Canadian researchers and organisations to participate in the programme on equal terms with their EU counterparts.
EU/EGYPT: On Saturday (29 June) the EU and Egypt signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the disbursement to Egypt of up to €1 billion in Macro-Financial Assistance. The Investment Conference and the signature of the MoU are the first concrete deliverables of the Strategic and Comprehensive Partnership (the Partnership), signed by the EU and Egypt in March 2024, in recognition of the critical geostrategic role Egypt plays as a pillar of stability in the region.
What I’m reading.
A scorecard of the EU’s last institutional cycle: ECFR looks at the world five years ago when the last round of EU personalities assumed office. It quickly turned into a rough ride. Within weeks the covid-19 pandemic turned everything upside down. And when it started to fade, the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borell went to Moscow to try to reset that relationship, only to be publicly humiliated by his Russian counterpart.
Trump’s Plan for NATO: Politico sets out how Trump advisers envision a ‘radical reorientation’ in which Washington takes a back seat to Europe — and cuts a deal with Putin over Ukraine.